The Pats vs Bills worm has certainly turned , Josh Allen lost his first three games to New England. That’s when the fun really stopped. Since the start of the 2020 season The Allen led Bills are 5-2 vs the Pats, including the loss in 2021 in a blizzard where Mac Jones completed two of three pass attempts ( laughing here ) on the night. With some truly egregious beat downs mixed in there for good measure. Josh Allen really hates New England. And can you blame him? With the smack downs early in career at the hands of Brady and Belichick talking almost as much smack about him as I do. The chip on his shoulder is huge. But on a shoulder like his , It probably won’t affect him on Saturday. Here are my Monster Keys to Patriots victory over the Bills.
Open up the Kitchen
Yes folks it’s time to let Drake Maye cook. The Bills are a strictly cover 2 cover 3 team , they mix it up a bit but nickel with split safeties is the coin they flip most often. COOL . This plays into one of the few strong points of the Patriots offense. 12 personnel and flood. Maye has done a fantastic job as a rookie of dissection zone and using 12 has been a bread and butter grouping for the Pats this season. If the Pats can keep the bills in their cover two look Maye can cook. I see a big usage of Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper this weekend , I see Maye hitting open windows in this zone to Bourne and Boutte before they are even open. He will need to anticipate the spot. Get the ball out and trust his pass catchers to be there.
Turn up the Heat
Ive been asking for this team to play with more pace most of the season and we got some of it last week. Well I want more. More No Huddle. More Muddle Huddle. This will keep the bills from changing personnel and keeping them in the look the Patriots want , the look Drake has looked his best against.
The Weeklies are early on the ring this week and for good reason. They May be the best chance at winning this game.
Win the turnover Battle – This ain’t the Josh Allen of yore. Sitting back and waiting for him to do something stupid just isn’t in the cards in 2024. The Pats are going to have to take care of the ball Sunday and FORCE a turnover or two to get a short field. Scratch and scrape for every ball. They need extra possessions.
Own third Down – Last week the Patriots were a pepto abysmal ZERO for SIX on third down, dropping them to 34% on the season. While they gave up 10 of 15 to the bloody cardinals. Meanwhile the Bills are at 43% on the season and over 50% in their last three games. Get off the field and extend drives.
Limit the Laundry – happily the Pats had just 4 flags tossed at them last week, SADLY they were very very costly. Sunday will have to be super clean for the Patriots to come out on top of this.
Own The Red Zone – guess who leads the league in trips pergame to the red zone ? Not the Pats . The Bills get into the zone more than four times a contest. They are tied for the league lead in TD once inside the 20 converting on three of those four. God help me, … This is not a bend don’t break week. The Patriots on the other hand need to do more getting Drake involved with his legs inside the 10 .
What to do with Gonzo
A smart QB will stay away from Christian Gonzalez, Why ? Christian Gonzalez is a nightmare. So what to do with that nightmare ? Smart money would put him on Cooper, or Smarter money would put him on Khalil Shakir , But how about shutting down the receiver who scares me the most ? Dalton Kincaid , Kincaid is Allens chain mover. Just a thought. Just think about it.
Stuff that run
Sunday would be a great day for Barmore , Godchaux and company need to wake the hell up. Use some of that ample size and shed a few blocks and fill the games Buffalo likes too run up through. The LB and DB corps will have their hands full with Allen on a mission. Set the edge , Slow down the run game and get them into third and long.
Blitz Early
DeMarcus Covington is going to have to dig deep into someone else’s bags of tricks because none of his have worked. I need to see early down blitzing. Do not wait and send the house on third and seven , I want to see run blitzes on second and seven. Corners coming when he least expects it. Dial up the exotics and get home.
That’s it, my rabid readers. In years past I could depend on the HC to have a plan in place to keep this close and give the Patriots a puncher’s chance. Those days are gone. The weeklies have never been more important than they will be on Sunday.
As always you can follow / give me grief on Twitter or Blue Sky @Tmurph207
