“A Podcast To Be Named Later”
Week #7 Fantasy Football Preview
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*** TECHNICAL NOTE ***
The Podcast began at the FIVE MINUTE mark.
Below are News and Show Notes from our Week #7 Fantasy Football Preview Podcast that airs live at 1130am every Friday. I published the proposed rundown prior to recording the Podcast and now I am outlining show notes from the program itself. Below is a rough outline of the topics, the questions and the answers covered on todays show.
Friday Oct 18th – 1130am
Host: Chris Mitchell @CJMitch73
Guests:
1135am: @APFeifer24 of RotoCurve.com
1205p: @NYPost Fantasy Writer Drew Loftis @NYPost_Loftis
Show Topics
1135am EST
Daily Fantasy Football
w/ Adam Pfeifer @APFeifer24: RotoCurve Lead DFS Analyst
* Early Season Trends
— some odd pricing has happened, McCaffery deserved it but the high end guys were disappointing.
* Week #7 Best and Worst Matchups
Play everyone against Dolphins
TY Hilton super cheap on Draftkings against Texans
Texans bad vs #1 receivers (Chark and Allen and Tyreek Hill went big against Texans)
Bills vs Dolphins
TE against Cardinals
Don’t pay for Defense so look for 6-7 points for cheap dollars
Bears D vs Saints cause only 3K – cheap.
– Run Defenses?
Target Bengals (Fournette – huge workload, bengals suck)
Target Skins run D – 49ers committee but running 56% of time, most in league
Tevin Coleman has been good and especially red zone
Carlos Hyde (Texans) has been good – 10th in league in carries 16+ per game. Colts run D has struggled.
Matchup doesn’t matter THAT much, in DFS. Vikes D is very tough vs Run but the RB price reflects that so makes it interesting
Sites price them up A LOT but the increases have been reasonable
Aaron Jones 7100 – too high
Too low — Devonta Freeman because of pass catching ability, not the running and his pricing has gone DOWN. Odd.
Joe Mixon very risky but close game could be a real value.
– Pass Defenses to Avoid —> Cornerbacks
Avoiding Bills D
Targeting Daniel Jones vs Cardinals – bad vs pass D 2nd worst to pass and QBs run well vs them too
Jacoby Brissett really cheap and really productive (Texans bad against the Pass)
Curt Cousins struggling – better lately but bad pass D’s. Not there this week vs Detroit
* Weekly Must Start Plays
Leonard Fournette best overall play (7K)
Julio Jones may be vs Ramsey
Cooper Kupp should be big
Dalvin Cook at 8K is pricey but RB is a tough spot. Detroit bad vs run
* Week #7 Bargains, Best Values and Fades
Fournette
Packers Lazard 3K for Packers if the wrs are injured vs bad Oak D
TY HIlton too Cheap
Joss Jacobs and K Johnson Mixon
* Week #7 Busts to Be
This weeks slate – not a lot of hating
S Barkley if he is limited
QB – Rodgers could be because of WR injuries
Jimmy G too expensive but good matchup
* Week #7 Contrarian Plays
Josh Jacobs — if they fall behind he isn’t a pass catching guy but running he has a good matchup and could be close. GB bad against the run.
Calvin Ridley especially if Ramsey plays.
* Week #7 Standard Stacks
Rams at Falcons – Goff/Kupp/Cooks and Woods
Murray and L Fitz vs Giants (D Johnson runs a lot of routes too)
Brisett and TY Hilton
John Brown and Josh Allen
IDEAL STACK Structure — Matchup and skill set of RB determinant
avoid Run only RBs if stacking opposing offense
* Week #7 Contrarian Stacks
Darnold loves targeting the slot
Minshew vs Bengals (top 3 cornerbacks out)
Chark top 5 in deep targets and red zone targets
Golladay and Stafford
* Week #7 Best Plays by Position
QB:
Rams O because Falcons suck
Josh Allen will run wild
Jacoby Brisett
RB:
fournette and D Cook, mixon Johnson and Josh Jacobs
WR:
Kupp/Chark/L Fitz/
TE:
hunter henry cheap
engram great matchup
M Andrews with Brown injured
Def:
Bears D 3K at home
Oakland D with GB banged up at WR
EXCESS EXCESS EXCESS RABBLE
** Fantasy Basketball **
@APFeifer24
“easiest to project
points change every second.â€
MY TAKE
The NBA is a TERRIBLE PRODUCT, but with the fast paced second-to-second scoring updates I can see how that could caption a non-basketball fans attention and hold their interest. And, playing Fantasy sports always keeps you informed on the comings and goings in the league, which helps around the water cooler. Ignorance is Bliss if your a Trump fan, but for the rest of us it’s a detriment to our ability to hang with the work crew.
1210pm EST: Drew Loftis @NYPost_Loftis
Set-Aside News and Notes
– Maholmes impact on Hill/Kelce
– Can Fantasy owners cut Sammy Watkins?
– Buying Terry Mclaurin
– Dynasty league
—> Kenny Golladay?
—> Phillip Lindsay – electric but hurt by Freeman there and smaller RB, workload will always be an issue
– Tight Ends – long term stars developing or just a good year for specific players?
—> Hooper/Andrews/Waller
*Week #7 Game-by-Game Breakdown
w/ New York Post Fantasy Writer Drew Loftis @NYPost_Loftis
Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
@NYpost_Loftis
Goff is in prime position to succeed the next two weeks. Start your Rams.
D has been worse than the offense.
More confidence in Goff being better than he has been because the Falcons defense is so bad.
Falcons D is so bad that they are getting closer to being a must-target defense.
@CJMitch73
The matchups don’t scare me away from starters while they also don’t elevate an otherwise Sit to a Start. Malcolm Brown is a guy to be reluctant about. Anyone can score if given goalline opportunities and Brown can be “A guy†some weeks, but the skill set is limited. He can be started if Gurley is sitting when the alternatives are weak and with four teams on Bye it’s possible to be in that situation.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
@NYPost_Loftis
Josh Allen is a good start this week. Not an elite start, but he is viable.
Frank Gore is a waiver wire guy that is viable this week because of how bad the Miami D is and the game flow could result in TD’s and carries.
@CJMitch73
Josh Allen could score both with his legs and through the air. Miami Coach Brian Flores may dial up some blitzes and he is familiar with Josh Allen’s skills and weaknesses, but this is a game that Allen’s poor decision making and inability to make quick decisions should be minimized while his explosive raw tools could emerge.
Stay away from the wideouts, but Dawson Knox is a top 15 Tight End this week. Start Devin Singletary if he is a go. Explosive ability in a prime matchup.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
@NYPost_Loftis
Jags struggle vs Run
Chark Jr. is a Must-Start unless loaded roster. Good Matchup
@CJMItch73
Solid matchups for the typically starts, but a lot of the Start’s in this one are leaning towards Sit’s if they don’t start performing. Start them this week. Begin to re-evaluate after this week. Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon need to put up or be benched soon.
Chark Jr. is a Must-Start. LOVE the red zone and deep ball targets. Even if he struggles, he starts until those slow down.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
@NYPost_Loftis
Kerryon Johnson is a good matchup against Minn Run D
Down on Diggs this week. Not benching him but the love is less this week in a tougher than average matchup.
@CJMitch73
All the Starts start without elevating the Sits. Cousins should struggle this week, so I am fading them in DFS.
Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers
@NYPost_Loftis
GB injury situation is remarkable. Lazard becomes viable. Mercedes Lewis could be viable because of the injuries at WR.
Jamal Williams? “Aaron Jones is a better running back. Thats clear. But, the Packers coaches, before and now, believe that Aaron Jones’ touches need to be monitored and limited.”
LONG road trip for Raiders. It could start to wear on them.Jacobs is a DFS play this week. Worth the price.
@CJMitch73
A lot of underappreciated draft day values are now must start Oakland Raiders. Jacobs and Waller being two. Jamal Williams is a Flex in deeper leagues because we know that â€some†touches will be there.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
@NYPost_Loftis
Colts shouldn’t dominate time of possession versus Texans as they did the Chiefs.
TY Hilton dominates the Texans.
Carlos Hyde volume makes him a viable consideration.
@CJMitch73
T.Y. Hilton is one of the most underappreciated play-makers in the game. Falls short of WR1 status but he is extremely close and the switch from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brisett hasn’t killed him.
Game flow concerns me here. The Colts are likely to try and limit the Texans possessions, like they did successfully against the Chiefs in Kansas City. That should mean a HUGE workload for Marlon Mack and a smaller one than we have recently seen for Carlos Hyde. Sit Hyde, love Mack in DFS.
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
@NYPost_Loftis
“LOVE THIS GAME. Love the Cardinals players as well as some of the Giants players.”
“Barkley DFS price may be too high considering the uncertainty.
@CJMitch73
A lot of talented players in this one and the defenses don’t offer much of a roadblock to producing in Week #7.
Barkley starts if he plays in yearly leagues, but I am not taking on the price in DFS.
Daniel Jones is a deeper league option and a DFS bargain play.
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins
@NYPost_Loftis
49ers defense and running backs the only plays here, with Mclaurin possibly in depending
@CJMitch73
McLaurin has earned must-start status, but this isn’t the matchup to love him.
49er’s defense will cost a few pennies but it’s a price worth paying if it doesn’t kill the overall structure of your roster.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
@NYPost_Loftis
Mariota impact? ” Negligible.” May be a slight upgrade but not substantial. Doesn’t make a Sit all of a sudden a Start.
The Rivers effect. “I think he has seen his best days.”
@CJMitch73
Allen is a must-start in all leagues and all formats, all weeks. Ekeler and Gordon still start as well and Hunter Henry takes advantage of TE being so poor, but I am sitting everyone else. I can’t own shares in a Titan offensive player.
Titans D is an intriguing DFS play if you need to squeeze in another player at another position.
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
@NYPost_Loftis
Shaping up to be a defensive struggle. Latavius Murray comparable to Carlos Hyde. Not happy about it but if you HAVE to play him, ok, it’s ok.
David Montgomery should struggle. Saints have shut down running backs.
@CJMitch73
I can’t buy into Teddy Bridgewater and with the exception of a contrarian punt/bargain-basement play, I can’t recommend Latavius Murray. Bad is still bad and buying bad is money wasted. That’s Latavius Murray this week.
Same for the Bears. Saints defense is good enough to mitigate the borderline Flex options on the Bears offense.
Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks
@NYPost_Loftis
Lining up all of the players you can find in DFS and Yearly leagues.
Carson is a tougher start in PPR formats this week because of the matchup.
@CJMitch73
The QB’s are must-start studs. Carson’s volume is Must-Start for the Seahawks as Mark Andrews and Ingram are for the Ravens. I am reluctant to recommend anyone else except for Tyler Lockett who has earned Start status as Russell Wilson’s main weapon, especially with the loss of Will Dissly.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
@NYPost_loftis
Tough calls and alternatives make the decision for you for Eagles offense.
Devin Smith is a speedster and Philly has struggled against those guys. Cheap and long shot/Sleeper type.
@CJMitch73
I am not enamored with any Eagles while I am hesitant to start anyone but the staples from the Cowboys. The Eagles have struggled against the pass, making Dak Prescott an intriguing play, but I can’t stack an injured Cooper or an inconsistent Gallup.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
@NYPost_Loftis
Buying the Patriots defense. They won’t shame the Jets like they have some of the previous teams, but they are a bad matchup for Jets players and their Fantasy owners.
“Jets fans are excited and somewhat optimistic that they can compete. Hopeful.”
@CJMitch73
The Patriots defense is one of the more overrated units in the game, making Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder intriguing contrarian plays. The safe play is to “wait and see†but for gunslinger players who want to take the risk to be ahead of the curve, Crowder and Anderson are your guys.
To flip that coin, fade Le’Veon Bell in DFS. I wish I could go “hot take†on you, but I can’t recommend sitting a player as talented as Bell. I don’t love him this week, but I can’t go so far as to bench him.
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Chris Mitchell
2016 FSWA Award Winner “Best Comedy Article”
2017 FSWA “Best Fantasy Podcast” Nominee
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